US CPI Data Exceeds Expectations, Zinc Prices in Domestic and Overseas Markets Show Mixed Changes [SMM Market Review - Weekly Price Commentary]

SMM February 14 News:

LME Zinc: At the beginning of the week, due to the weaker-than-expected US January non-farm payrolls data, which increased by 143,000, significantly below expectations, and the US January unemployment rate falling to 4%, lower than the previous value and the expected 4.1%, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend. Subsequently, the US tariff policy continued to disturb the market, with overall bearish macro sentiment spreading. After an initial rise, the US dollar index declined, leading to a slight drop in LME zinc followed by a rebound. Meanwhile, the US January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in below expectations, dampening market confidence in future economic trends and enhancing risk aversion sentiment, pushing LME zinc upward. Later, US CPI data exceeded expectations across the board, with the US dollar index surging over 50 points in the short term. However, the continued destocking of overseas inventories provided support for LME zinc at the bottom. Under the influence of multiple factors, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend, with its center overall moving upward this week. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc recorded $2,865.5/mt, up $23.5/mt, an increase of 0.83%.

SHFE Zinc: At the beginning of the week, from the fundamentals side, domestic spot inventory continued to increase as shipments arrived in various regions, with inventory buildup persisting. Meanwhile, smelters saw a significant rise in processing fees. Although spot supply kept increasing, downstream consumption did not fully recover, weakening support for zinc prices from both supply and demand sides, leading to a decline in SHFE zinc. Subsequently, SHFE zinc saw a slight rebound driven by the overseas market. Then, as domestic spot supply continued to increase and US CPI data exceeded expectations, the domestic market remained relatively quiet in trading atmosphere. However, downstream end-user enterprises were generally expected to resume operations after the Lantern Festival, fostering positive expectations for subsequent consumption. SHFE zinc fluctuated. According to SMM communication, as of Thursday (February 13), the total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions monitored by SMM reached 123,300 mt, an increase of 4,600 mt compared to February 10. Although inventory increased, the overall level remained low, and downstream consumption fell short of expectations, leading SHFE zinc to maintain a fluctuating trend. As of 15:00 on Thursday, SHFE zinc recorded 23,775 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1%.

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